PTA surreal rise survey Zheng Shangsuo clarified that "everything is normal"
on April 27, affected by swine flu, the international and domestic commodity markets plummeted; PTA (refined p-benzoic acid, an industrial raw material, is mainly used as clothing raw material and a substitute for cotton) in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Futures rose by the limit against the trend. The survey found that PTA futures have a long history of strengthening, from the lowest point of more than 4000 yuan per ton last year to more than 7000 yuan per ton now, and the absolute price has nearly doubled. In the futures market, this means 10 times of profits and losses
according to the source, behind the uptrend of PTA, there are obvious signs of capital operation in Zhejiang. Position data shows that this mysterious fund may be divided into positions in many futures seats such as Dayue futures and Zhejiang Yongan to tolerate our failure
the relevant person in charge of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange said in an interview that from the current point of view, the risk of PTA futures varieties is completely controllable, and there is no problem of violating the "three public" principle. The person in charge stressed: "investors who do things in the wrong direction should review themselves, rather than doubt the impartiality of the market."
behind the bizarre rise in PTA
according to sources, I heard the statement that Zhejiang capital groups were doing long PTA before. At that time, I didn't care much, but I didn't expect it to become a reality
if it were not for the uptrend limit on April 27, people would continue to ignore the huge increase of PTA. According to the data, PTA has been rising since November last year, during which there have been three main waves. But for a long time, the rise has been relatively mild and has not attracted much attention
at the same time, the main bulls increased their positions in batches. According to the position statistics, the position of Dayue futures has maintained the first place of bulls since last year. On November 21 last year, the number of orders of Dayue futures increased by more than 15000 in one trading day, and the total position was more than 30000, which was equivalent to 150000 tons of PTA. At that time, the value was more than 600million yuan
since then, taking advantage of the opportunity of price correction, Dayue seat has carried out large-scale position increase operations at least on January 6, March 27, and most recently on April 27. In order to hide the eyes and ears of the people, the main capital gradually closed positions and made profits while PTA prices rose
it should be noted that after nearly half a year of accumulation, the main funds have almost reached 15. The experimental software under the full Chinese Windows platform has reached the control position. According to the latest position report, the main force of long and short is Dayue futures. On April 29, dahue held nearly 24000 multiple orders and 12000 blank orders, ranking first in both long and short positions
in addition, almost all of the top five long and short main players, except COFCO futures, are monopolized by Zhejiang Department futures companies. This includes Zhejiang Yongan, Zhejiang new century, Nanhua futures, Zhejiang Dadi and Zhejiang XinhuaLiu Jialin, an analyst at Dayue futures, said he was not clear about the main funds in the market. "However, the current tight supply in the spot market is indeed beneficial to bulls." He predicted that the bullish situation would remain strong until mid May
from the price comparison relationship between spot and futures, the current spot price of 0905 is nearly 8000 yuan per ton, which is nearly 700 yuan higher than the main month of the BYD cooperation project leading group headed by the main leader of the municipal government. This means that many hedging institutions prefer to sell PTA directly in the spot market rather than short in the futures market
another factor that makes bulls confident is to register warehouse receipts. The latest data shows that there are only more than 1500 PTA warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and even less than 1000 for a long time in the previous few months. The inventory corresponding to these 1500 warehouse receipts is only 7500 tons, that is, there is only so much inventory available for short sellers to deliver
for the 0905 contract that faces delivery in May, the number of positions has exceeded 10000 so far, and 5000 unilateral short positions. If the Bulls continue to close short, the short positions will face a situation of no goods to deliver. Experts believe that long funds are likely to take advantage of the small number of warehouse receipts to launch a more violent close
Zheng Shangsuo: in line with the "three public" principle
with the substantial profits of the main bulls, PTA bears suffered heavy losses. Thus, there are more and more rumors in the market. The most typical rumor is that some people suspect that there is some kind of unspeakable connection between the main funds of Zhejiang bulls and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and all Zheng merchants cooperated in the whole process
in response, the relevant person in charge of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange responded in particular, "it's pure nonsense!" He said that Zheng Shangsuo didn't need to cooperate with a certain main force for the so-called trading volume or any factors. If we say that in the early days of China's futures market, some exchanges did have violations, and now the market is transparent and open, what exchanges need to do is to create a good platform in line with the "three public" principles
he reminded investors that the futures market has always been a place with more rumors because it involves practical funds and interests. Investors should rationally judge opportunities, rationally operate and rationally bear the results of transactions. "At present, there is no systematic risk in PTA trading, which is completely within the scope of control."
a person in the futures industry told that more and more industrial enterprises in Zhejiang are indeed speculating in the name of hedging, which is worthy of vigilance by relevant parties. Its root also lies in the profit making effect of futures speculation. Theoretically, futures hedging is to control the risk of spot trading. No matter how you operate, you will not make money from the futures market, but speculation may bring rich profits. In addition, the decision-making mechanism of most private enterprises in Zhejiang is flexible, and it is easy to switch between hedging and speculation
on the other hand, the inconvenient delivery process is also a factor that makes enterprises turn from hedging to speculation. For example, when some enterprises sign spot contracts, the trading party specifies products of a certain brand; But when he went to the exchange to pick up the goods, he could only pick up what brand he had, and there was no choice
note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content
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