The hottest PTA price rises slowly, and caution is

PTA prices still need to be cautious in the late period of slow rise

on the whole, PTA prices are starting to rise slowly in the midst of shocks, which is driven by the rise of upstream raw materials, the recovery of downstream textile product demand and other factors. However, considering that the demand of international developed economies has not been fundamentally improved, the domestic RMB appreciation is obvious, and the pressure on energy conservation and emission reduction is increasing, there is little room for PTA prices to rise sharply in the later period

as of September 17, 2010, according to the data of China National fiber, the internal price of PTA was 7500 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from 6900 yuan/ton on July 16 (the lowest price since the beginning of 2010); In terms of futures price, the main PTA contract 1101 closed at 7892 yuan/ton on July 17, an increase of 678 yuan/ton from the lowest PTA contract price of 7214 yuan/ton on July 15, and the trend and range of current price changes are similar

multiple factors supported the PTA price rebound

from the perspective of upstream raw materials, the crude oil price fell back to the low price in May 2010 due to the impact of the European Union sovereign debt crisis. Later, with the weakening of the impact of the European debt crisis, the global economy as a whole still maintained a recovery trend, and the average price of WTI futures rose to $76.67/barrel in August. Although it only increased by 0.55% month on month, it has rebounded for three consecutive months. In addition, the CRB index, which is positively related to crude oil prices, has significantly rebounded from a low of 450.47 on June 7 to 530.24 on September 17, up 79.77 points, and has risen to the highest point since the beginning of 2010; While the dollar index, which is negatively related to crude oil prices, rose sharply to 82.43 on August 11, it has shown signs of shock and decline since September. The rebound in crude oil prices has become the source support force for the rebound in PTA prices

from the perspective of naphtha price, according to zhuochuang information data, naphtha prices at home and abroad are also rising. On September 1st, 2010, PetroChina raised the settlement price of naphtha from 294 yuan/ton to 4913 yuan/ton, and Sinopec also raised the ex factory price of naphtha to 5310 yuan/ton in September; Internationally, in August 2010, the FOB price of naphtha in Singapore was US $73.30/barrel, and the CFR price in Japan was US $674.97/ton, an increase of 7.20% and 6.45% respectively month on month. In addition, according to the demonstration aggregation effect of the number of medium fiber, in August 2010, the average outer disc price of p-xylene (PX), the direct raw material of PTA upstream, was 930 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.95% month on month. On September 10, the outer disc price of PX rose to 975 yuan/ton

figure Px, PTA and polyester staple fiber price trends

data source: medium fiber

from the demand situation of downstream textile products, textile exports continue to rise, while the traditional "golden nine and silver ten" seasonal effect of textile is gradually reflected, which has become an important driving force to drive the rise of upstream PTA prices. According to the data of China Customs express, from January to August 2010, China's textile and clothing exports totaled $129.804 billion, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 23.76%. The growth rate increased by 0.81 percentage points from January to July, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate has continued to rise since March. The trading volume data of textile city also showed that the sales boom of downstream textile products continued to rebound recently. On August 1, the trading volume of textile city was 3.92 million meters/day, and on September 15, it rebounded to 5.97 million meters/day. From the perspective of the prices of polyester and polyester staple fiber downstream of PTA, the monthly average prices of polyester chip (PET) and polyester staple fiber in August 2010 were 9158 yuan/ton and 9627 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.46% and 2.06% month on month respectively; On September 17, the prices of pet and polyester staple rose to 9350 yuan/ton and 10600 yuan/ton respectively

in addition, the continuous recovery of cotton prices and the continuous increase of cotton purchase costs for textile enterprises also increased the demand for alternative chemical fiber raw materials, indirectly boosting the price recovery of PTA. Affected by factors such as cotton dumping and storage, the domestic spot price of 328 cotton fell from the high level in July (the highest price reached 18419 yuan/ton on July 9), but due to the bad weather in the later key technology period, the cotton price began to rise again from the low of 18002 yuan/ton on September 1, and by September 17, the price had risen to 19005 yuan/ton, a record high. The price of cotton cotook a (FE) rose to 100.3 cents/pound on September 13, breaking the 100 cents/pound mark for the first time

in the production unit of PTA, considering the shutdown and maintenance of some manufacturers, it is expected that the PTA supply will be tight in September. For example, the PTA unit with a capacity of 600000 tons/year in China Formosa Plastics (Ningbo) is planned to be shut down from September 10 to 25; The production line of Indian oil company (IOC) with a capacity of 550000 tons/year shut down from August 23 to mid October; The No. 3 PTA plant with a KP chemical capacity of 550000 tons/year in South Korea shut down in early to mid September. At the same time, China's PTA imports also showed an increase. According to the data of China's customs, from January to July 2010, China imported 920300 tons of PTA, an increase of 9.23% year-on-year, and the growth rate has continued to rise since March 2010. In July, the PTA import volume was 606700 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 24.84% and a month on month increase of 1.94%

there is little room for PTA prices to rise in the later period.

in terms of macro-economy, the commercial sales data of major developed economies remain generally on the mend, but the unemployment rate is still at a high level, which restricts the recovery of consumer demand. On the one hand, it will affect the trend of raw oil prices in the upstream of PTA, on the other hand, it will also affect the demand for textile products in the downstream of PTA

according to the U.S. Bureau of statistics, retail sales in the United States increased by 0.45% month on month in August, higher than market expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 3.77%. Among them, the sales of clothing products in the United States increased by 1.16% month on month and 3.91% year on year. Data from the Ministry of economy, trade and industry of Japan showed that Japan's total commercial sales in July increased by 2.10% month on month and 1% year-on-year. Among them, the total sales of textiles and clothing increased by 4.71% month on month, which was mainly driven by the growth of retail sales of clothing products. The total retail sales of the European Union in July increased by 0.1% month on month, but fell by 0.1 percentage points compared with June. The growth rate slowed down and increased by 1.0% year on year. However, the unemployment rate in the United States rose to 9.6% in August, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the slow recovery of the manufacturing industry is the main reason for the high unemployment rate. Japan's unemployment rate was 5.2% in July, down 0.1 percentage points from June, but it is still at an all-time high. The unemployment rate in the eurozone was 10.0% in July, maintaining this level for the fifth consecutive month

domestically, since the beginning of September, the RMB has appreciated significantly, which is detrimental to the continuous recovery of textile exports. On September 1, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 6.8126 yuan to the US dollar, which fell to 6.7172 yuan on September 17. The RMB appreciated by 1.42% against the US dollar, mainly because the Obama administration was preparing for the mid-term congressional elections in November and kept putting pressure on China. CPI rose to 3.5% in August, and inflationary pressure increased. However, considering that the rise in CPI is mainly caused by food prices, it belongs to structural inflation, and the probability of domestic interest rate hike is small. However, it is worth worrying about the impact of the current power rationing factors on the textile industry. This year is the last year of the implementation of the Eleventh Five Year Plan for deepening mutually beneficial cooperation, which will cause serious consequences; Another example is that no matter how hard the metal dentures are, the pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction increases, and some regions are taking power restriction measures, which affects the operating rate of textile enterprises, resulting in the weakening of the purchase of upstream PTA, which together with the exchange rate problem suppresses the rising space of PTA price

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