The hottest PTA volume limit or indicates the end

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PTA volume limit or indicates the end of the rebound

Zhengzhou PTA futures, which has strengthened against the trend for many days, suddenly fell yesterday. The main contract 0905 fell by the limit in large volume, closing at 5194 yuan/ton, with a full day trading volume of 463900 hands, down 218 yuan compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day. In fact, as early as December 22, PTA futures showed signs of weakness. The 0905 contract hit the daily limit of 5758 yuan/ton at the opening of the day, and then fell rapidly, closing with a cross negative line. In the following trading days, PTA futures have been volatile and fell, falling below the 5-day, 10-day and 15 day moving average

the author believes that the PTA rebound that began in mid November may have ended for three main reasons:

first, fundamentals are difficult to support PTA's long-term rise. At the end of October, due to the shutdown of some PX devices, the general stocking of polyester enterprises at the end of the year, and the fact that some polyester enterprises paid cash to PTA suppliers and required to issue VAT invoices to increase deductions, PTA short-term d) the measurement results of this batch of products and the supply-demand relationship of production date changed, creating a wave of rebound market. The main contract rose from the previous low of 4250 yuan/ton to 5758 yuan/ton, an increase of 35.48%

however, the long-term negative factors of PTA have not disappeared. With the joint upward attack of PX and PTA prices, the whole chemical fiber chain not only ensures the safety of users, but also makes profits in prolonging the service life of spring testing machine. However, the overcapacity of PTA device and polyester device cannot be ignored. The lasting excess profit will have a very stable performance and induce the shut-down PX device to start. Compared with this year, the long-term overcapacity of PTA next year will be more serious, which doomed the weak path of PTA price

secondly, the inventory pressure of polyester enterprises will be greater next spring than before. This pressure is not only from the backlog of finished products, but also from the purchase of PTA raw materials for the late arrival of pre invoiced goods in the early stage. The double impact may make it more difficult for some small and medium-sized polyester enterprises next year. The reason is that the sharp rise of PTA has led many polyester enterprises to mistakenly believe that a good market for PTA and polyester is coming, and they have intervened in this rising market

finally, judging from the weak trend of 0 ~ 200 mm measurement range of textile and clothing prices, end consumer goods cannot support the continuous rise of PTA prices. Judging from the recent transactions in the Textile City, although the textile price is also rising, the sales volume is far lower than that in previous years. The price discounts in major shopping malls are larger than those in previous years, but this has not achieved the purpose of promotion. European and American countries are implementing trade protectionism in disguised form. In November 2008, exports fell by 2% year-on-year for the first time, with textiles and clothing being the most

from the above analysis, PTA futures should be a short market in the long run, but the path to short is not smooth. According to Zheng Shangsuo's position on the main contract pta905, on December 26th, 2008, the long positions in the seats of greater Vietnam were 25632 hands, an increase of 3230 hands over the previous trading day; On December 29th, 2008, there were 20668 long positions in the seats of greater Vietnam, 4964 fewer than the previous trading day; At the same time, it actively increased 4645 positions in short positions. No matter how the main funds play, they can't change the empty market of pta0905. What can be changed is the decline slope of PTA futures and spot

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