The hottest paper price hike and RMB appreciation

2022-08-18
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Paper price hike and RMB appreciation escort Chenming Paper Industry

the times create heroes. Looking at today's A-share companies, we may feel that the times create bull stocks

since the beginning of this year, the stock market has experienced a sudden change, China Pacific Insurance broke, PetroChina continued to plummet, Vanke led the plunge, while Chenming paper, the leader of the paper industry as a sample stock of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, has shown indomitable performance

on April 15, the closing market of Chenming paper was the effective way to test products. At 15.38 yuan, the share price fell only 5% compared with the opening of this year, while the CSI 300 index fell by 33% in the same period

on April 15, Chenming paper released its annual report. In 2007, its earnings per share was 0.6 yuan, achieving an operating income of 15.17 billion yuan and an operating profit of 1.285 billion yuan, an increase of 26.55% and 96.33% respectively year-on-year

the rise in the price of paper products

CITIC Securities attributed this beautiful report card to the joint effect of the improvement of Chenming paper industry management and the industry boom. The growth of paper production and the price increase in the second half of last year have led to a significant increase of nearly 30% in the revenue of Chenming Paper's GB 17258 industry

obviously, the price increase of products has once again become the first driving factor for the rise in performance. Based on this, the gross profit margin of Chenming Paper increased from 19% in 2006 to 20.4% in 2007. At the same time, it continuously deepened the internal integration of the acquired assets, reducing the operating expense rate and management expense rate

horses are not fat without night grass. Thanks to the exchange gains generated by the appreciation of the RMB, the financial expense rate of Chenming Paper decreased

last year, the state vigorously promoted energy conservation and environmental protection policies, and the original paper industry policy accelerated. The paper industry experienced large-scale integration. The market generally believes that the paper industry has entered a rising cycle

at present, the speed of domestic paper production capacity has slowed down, and this trend will continue with the high pressure of government energy conservation and emission reduction

CITIC Securities believes that the price of white cardboard and coated paper has changed from a cost driven price increase to a demand driven price increase, and there are signs of demand pulling in the price increase of paper

Chenming paper is one of the biggest beneficiaries of this industry integration. Its product structure is rich, covering almost all varieties of paper, and its output is the leader in the same industry

in late February this year, Huatai shares and Chenming paper raised the price of paper by about 300 yuan to yuan/ton

the annual report shows that paper accounts for 13.07% of the main business income of Chenming paper, and the gross profit margin has reached 19.18%. However, the pull of the Olympic Games in August this year on the demand for paper makes the profits contributed by paper in the first quarter and even the whole year worth looking forward to

in addition, the market prices of the remaining three paper varieties with a large proportion of Chenming paper industry have also increased significantly this year

according to the research data of CITIC Securities, in the first three months of this year, the price of double offset paper increased by about 300 yuan to 6800 yuan, the price of white cardboard increased by about 300 yuan to 7200 yuan/ton, and the price of coated paper increased by about 400 yuan to 7600 yuan/ton

it is worth noting that the appreciation of RMB has played a role in safeguarding the cost stability of Chenming paper

for a long time, more than 60% of the pulp of domestic paper enterprises have depended on imports. With the accelerated appreciation of the RMB, the cost of high pulp price in US dollars is expected to be reduced. In the first three months, the RMB appreciated by 3.8% against the US dollar. It is predicted that the financial cost rate of Chenming paper will continue to decline in the first quarter compared with last year

Huang Fusheng, a researcher at CSC securities, said that at the end of last year, the main new production capacity of Chenming paper industry has been put into operation. It is expected that the output of all kinds of paper in the first quarter of this year will increase to 3million tons, the highest in history, and the average market price of paper products in the first quarter will rise by 20%. Therefore, the quarterly report will have gratifying results

profit or increase by 50%

a researcher at a fund company in Beijing said with a smile: if you have confidence in China's stock market, please buy Chenming paper, because it is a large blue chip; If you are optimistic about the paper sector, please buy Chenming paper, because it is the industry leader; If you prefer Olympic theme, please buy Chenming paper, because it is a paper manufacturer; If you firmly believe in China's consumption upgrading, please buy Chenming paper, because it has high-quality copper paper and white cardboard

these words reveal the mystery of Chenming Paper's standing in the wave of sharp decline

Hao Yun, the Secretary of Chenming paper, admitted in that due to the complexity of the products, the accounting review of the production and operation data of the first quarter could not be completed until around April 25, and now the profitability could not be accurately evaluated. The company's first quarterly report was announced on April 29. Although there were known benefits such as product price increase and the appreciation of the people's currency, the specific content still had to wait until then

but in terms of energy conservation, the organization has a spectrum in mind. Since the second half of last year, CITIC Securities has been giving Chenming paper an investment rating of buying. At present, its first quarter profit forecast for Chenming paper is a year-on-year increase of 100%

Huang Fusheng also classified Chenming paper as an overweight group. His estimate is relatively conservative, and the EPS will be 50%-60 to avoid a sliding% increase during the experiment

Hao Yun did not comment on the good guess of the market, but said meaningfully that our first quarter performance can refer to our peers who have issued pre increase announcements or first quarter reports

On April 2, Bohui paper announced that its net profit in the first quarter was expected to increase by more than 150% year-on-year. Since the announcement, the stock has increased by 20.5%

however, Hao Yun revealed that the company has verified with the exchange that there is no requirement for listed companies with quarterly performance growth of more than 50% year-on-year to issue pre increase announcements, so the company will not announce the pre increase of quarterly performance

in the first quarter of last year, the net profit of Chenming paper was 210.661 million yuan. As of the end of last year, the total share capital of this stock was 1706.3459 million shares

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