Paper prices continue to rise "high cold"
release date: Source: China Publishing and media business daily editor: Yu Jia Views: 2645 copyright and disclaimer
core tip: paper prices have been rising for a year since the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2016. The share price of paper enterprises soared, printing factories sought the right to speak, and the publishing and media industry complained incessantly, but there was nothing to do
[China Packaging News] paper prices have been rising for a year since the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2016. The share price of paper enterprises soared, printing factories sought the right to speak, and the publishing and media industry complained incessantly, but there was nothing to do
the "rising voice" in the fourth quarter still predicts a fall after the Spring Festival
at present, the overall paper price in the fourth quarter still maintains an upward trend
statistics show that the price of waste paper in September 2017 increased by about 140% compared with 2016. At the beginning of October, the domestic waste paper price fell, falling by 1500 yuan/ton in three days, and the overall price of base paper also showed the same trend, which slightly boosted the downstream confidence in the reduction of paper price. However, since late October, it has rebounded rapidly, and then decreased and stabilized in the later period. According to the analysis of relevant people, "at present, the supply of domestic waste paper tends to be saturated and cannot be increased in the short term. The reduction of imported waste paper and the competition of white paperboard for raw materials have greatly pushed up the price of domestic waste paper. This fluctuation of waste paper price is a normal reaction, a reasonable adjustment after the previous surge, and it is estimated that it will not collapse."
sure enough, in late October, some paper mills sent another price increase letter. Chenming Group, Jinhai paper, jinhuasheng paper and other coated paper increased the price by 300 yuan/ton on the previous basis, and Yueyang Lin paper offset paper increased by 400 yuan/ton. Asia Pacific Senbo said, "since November 1, the prices of all brand copy paper, double offset paper and electrostatic copy base paper have been increased by 500 yuan/ton". Sun paper said, "from November 1, the price of a full range of copy paper products will be increased by 400-500 yuan/ton by region and grade on the basis of October.". Tianbang paper "since November 1, all 'Qiancheng' brand high-end double offset paper delivered from the warehouse will be increased by 300 yuan/ton."
insiders speculate that paper prices will continue to rise in the near future, and Xinlun technology may stabilize after the 2018 Spring Festival. Lu Nanchen, deputy general manager of China Publishing Group Beijing zhongbanlian printing materials Co., Ltd., said, "paper prices have their own adjustment function. It is estimated that after the Spring Festival in 2018 or the end of 2017, the rise may come to an end. Even if backward production capacity is eliminated, the market situation has always been that supply exceeds demand. Under this situation, the decline of paper prices is inevitable."
tightening of environmental protection policies
the price of raw materials continues to rise
the price of paper "frees itself", which is the reason for the rise of more than a year? Is it because of the tightening of national environmental protection policies, or is it due to the rise in international pulp prices, or is it because of the monopoly of paper enterprise giants to hoard goods and take the opportunity to raise prices
in August 2017, the Ministry of environmental protection and other five departments jointly issued the catalogue of imported waste management, which stipulates that from December 31, 2017, 24 kinds of solid wastes, including unsorted waste paper (1 variety), will be adjusted from the catalogue of solid wastes that can be used as raw materials in the restricted import category and included in the catalogue of solid wastes prohibited from import. In addition, the environmental protection license (quota) of imported waste paper will no longer be approved, and customs declaration and inspection will not be possible without the license. At the end of October, the regulations on the administration of environmental protection of imported waste paper (Draft for comments) continued to be issued
the person in charge of a paper factory in Hebei believes that "without much change in downstream demand, the sharp rise in paper prices is relatively affected by national policies, especially in environmental protection policies and related controls on imported waste paper. In addition, the prices of waste paper and pulp are also rising. Changes in raw material prices put pressure on the upstream and will naturally be transmitted to the downstream. This cost driver is easy to understand."
data show that since the fourth quarter of 2016, the price of raw material wood pulp has increased by 66%, and the price of waste paper has increased by 137%. Zhang Yiwen, head of the business department of Beijing Yadi Color Printing Co., Ltd., said, "this wave of price increases is mainly caused by the rise in raw materials. Although the price of waste paper has fallen, China mainly depends on imports. The pulp price has risen, and the paper price should continue to rise."
Lu Nanchen said, "there is no lack of the leading role of some large enterprises in the rise of paper prices, but I think this time is not the same as the rise in prices in the first half of the year. This time it is affected by raw materials, and it is a preventive action taken by paper production enterprises to prevent cost inversion."
upstream oligopoly concentration
"open contract" goes with the market
on October 25, CICC released a research report, pointing out that China's paper industry is currently facing problems such as overcapacity and slowing demand growth. In the future, the incremental space of the industry is relatively limited, but there will be a strong momentum for stock integration. In terms of inventory days, the inventory turnover days of carton paper and corrugated paper enterprises in 2017 were much higher than the average value of the past three years. The research report believes that the coexistence of rising paper prices and rising inventory may be related to the manufacturer's volume control quotation strategy
according to the statistics of China Newspaper Association, the price of paper has increased from 4000 yuan per ton in 2016 to 5500 yuan per ton, an increase of 37.5%, and the use of paper has been affected. The person in charge of the relevant newspaper industry believes that environmental protection policies are only incentives. As the upstream of the industrial chain, paper enterprises and dealers have the possibility of "making a bureau", "At the beginning of the year, the paper factory took turns to stop production, overhaul and destocking, and then raised the price on the grounds of more waste and impurities in the United States and higher costs, and then raised the price on the grounds of environmental protection inspection. Now it is said that e-commerce uses corrugated paper in a large amount and changes it into corrugated paper to ensure the use of paper by the central media, but it must agree with its price. The paper factory has a 'buy it now' situation, and has repeatedly sent a price increase letter to the newspaper at the same time, saying that it cannot supply enough. It is understood that Huatai Group has Foreign import waste paper market is' monopolized 'coverage. " Zhang Yiwen said, "the paper mills will adjust the price, supply speed and supply rhythm according to the market conditions in the production process of plastic products. Generally, there is a sentence at the end of the contract that the price automatically adjusts with the market conditions. This is true of three paper mills we cooperate with in Chengdu."
the president of a university press said to "spit bitterness", "From the beginning of the year to the end of the year, the issue of paper price has made publishing people jump every time before. The current value drifts or jumps randomly. If the 220V voltage of the power supply is unstable, it has become a little numb. The price is like a meaningless number, and it will rise if you say it rises. There may also be the problem of monopoly concentration. It is more difficult to negotiate the price, and the flow of bids is very common. We are now a passive link, and we feel particularly helpless. New books can raise the price, and old books only need Printing means losing money. "
Lu Nanchen said, "many small and medium-sized paper enterprises may fall in this frenzy, which is a devastating blow to them, but at the same time it is also conducive to the optimization of the industry. With the continuous development of paper enterprises, the leading enterprises will eventually form an alliance. According to the current situation, there is no solution, so we can only call the attention of relevant departments."
call for the formulation of standards
strengthen supervision and investigation
under the background of soaring paper prices, only paper enterprises have made a lot of profits, printing plants are confused as a whole, and newspapers and publishing houses are even more miserable
data show that as of October 25, from the three quarterly reports of this year disclosed by seven listed paper companies, the average net profit of the seven companies increased by 193%, an increase of nearly 2 times, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of parent companies such as Shanying paper and Bohui paper increased by more than 100% year-on-year
according to Zhang Yiwen, "The main problem facing the printing factory now is that the supply cycle of the paper factory is longer, which leads to the longer purchase cycle of the printing factory. On the other hand, after talking with many colleagues, everyone has the same feeling that it is two words - confusion. Tightening the environmental protection policy is conducive to the optimization of the industry, but many companies, including Yadi, are already green printing, but they still have to decide whether to start work according to the air quality. Printing is an important part of the cultural industry, It is hoped that the relevant national departments can formulate standards as soon as possible, and do not let the production plan be disrupted at any time. "
in terms of the newspaper, "it is suggested that the environmental protection department should give preference to paper and paper enterprises in terms of waste quotas in the United States, and formulate quotas specifically for paper. Relevant departments should explore the establishment of a long-term mechanism for the safety of paper production and supply. At the same time, they should strengthen the investigation on the monopoly of paper mills."
in terms of purchasing paper, according to Lu Nanchen, "Now it is suggested that publishing units' only buy overnight grain, not monthly grain ', reduce losses and do not overstock their inventory. The adjustment method is. There is always a high point in price rise, and chasing up inventory is meaningless. When the paper price reaches a peak, there will be a cliff like decline. Now it is time to take this opportunity to digest the past non-performing inventory. The current method adopted by China Publishing Group is to adjust inventory among various clubs, big clubs and The allocation between small cooperatives is relatively reasonable due to its low cost and short cycle compared with current mining. "
the Publishing House said, "the price of paper increased by nearly 40% - 50% in 2017. Now the ink, plate and consumables have increased by an average of about 10%. Can the pricing of new books follow the market, and can the price increase keep up with the pace of consumption? Spring textbooks are printed every year from December to January of the next year. In order to avoid the impact of environmental protection problems this year, we have striven for early approval, and will it be affected?"On October 28, the publishing industry alliance of Liangshan County, Shandong Province decided to increase the sales price of educational books by 2% on the original basis. The rise in the price of books transmitted by the rise in the price of paper to the publishing industry is inevitable