Maleic anhydride: domino effect where is maleic anhydride going?
after a difficult climb up in June, the pace of maleic anhydride upward in July gradually slowed down. Last week, n-butane maleic anhydride in Xinjiang took the lead in the correction, and the decline channel slowly opened, but some factories attributed the trend in a corner of Xinjiang to regional differences. Because Xinjiang is located in a hot place, the crystallization speed of maleic anhydride is accelerated, and most of the local maleic anhydride is sold to East China, which is a long way away. When the goods arrive at the destination, the maleic anhydride has been partially caked, affecting the use value. This is forcibly identified as the reason for the decline of maleic anhydride in Xinjiang, which is difficult for some strong people. The industry exaggerates the caking phenomenon of n-butane maleic anhydride, and a small amount of crystallization is normal. For so many years, Xinjiang maleic anhydride has its cause and effect
just after the downward adjustment of maleic anhydride in Xinjiang, the factories in East and North China still didn't care. They still talked about the success or failure of inventory. Supported by the limited inventory pressure, they bucked the trend and supported the price. Even if crude oil fell for 7 consecutive days, even if the downstream demand was seriously affected by the off-season, even if coking benzene could not rise, even if Shanxi maleic anhydride BDO could not be put into use, the maleic anhydride plant was still determined to stand up and wait. The resistance of downstream users to maleic anhydride is the same as before, and neither side is willing to compromise. Such a long-term tug of war leads to the exhaustion of maleic anhydride factory. According to an industry insider who declined to be named, it would be better to fall as soon as possible rather than stay tepid. It can be seen that the long-term stalemate has made some middlemen lose interest in maleic anhydride, which is quite profitable. While the rigid demand is weak, the investment demand is frustrated again, resulting in the accelerated rise of maleic anhydride inventory
some people may think that at present, there is no sign of loosening of petroleum pure benzene. This product with the function of wind vane is still motionless, and maleic anhydride may not be too pessimistic. But let's recall that the decline of petroleum pure benzene stopped when it fell to 6000 yuan/ton in May. Why did coking benzene slide to 4900 yuan/ton? The relationship between coking benzene and petroleum benzene should be closer than maleic anhydride. In any case, maleic anhydride has officially entered the downward channel. Middlemen and downstream users have the same bearish expectations for maleic anhydride. Middlemen believe that maleic anhydride is expected to fall to the 8000 yuan/ton level, and downstream users are interested in the vicinity of 8200 yuan/ton. There is a serious shortage of bullish people for the time being
in the future, coking benzene still has a narrow downward space, which may further drag down maleic anhydride. Our technical team will regularly go to Japan to train and learn. On the other hand, the off-season effect of downstream UPR is quite obvious, the demand is difficult to improve in the short term, and users have no demand for covering positions. It can be seen that maleic anhydride demand is also difficult to pay attention to selecting some refractory materials and flame-retardant materials in the short term. Moreover, the Shanxi BDO unit, which everyone cares about, is difficult to put into use this month. It is reported that its maleic anhydride inventory is rich, and the purchase of maleic anhydride will come to an end. According to the data, as of the close of July 6, the 22 working day moving average price of crude oil in the three places had reached -3.91%. The price adjustment of the national development and Reform Commission has entered a sensitive period before the expiration of the pricing period. The window for the reduction of finished oil prices will open as soon as this weekend, and it is predicted that the reduction range will exceed 200 yuan. If the refined oil is reduced, it will undoubtedly worsen the maleic anhydride market. However, on July 7, crude oil soared and closed above $74, widening the distance from the sensitive price of $71.5/barrel, and it is still uncertain whether the refined oil can be reduced. It is expected that maleic anhydride will have room for decline in the short term, and the factory will increase its efforts to limit production. The domino effect caused by crude benzene has made maleic anhydride tottering. When a series of upstream products stabilize has become the focus of the industry. In the environment of continuous weakness in the steel market, crude benzene production is low. Coking benzene represents our innovation, talents and vision. The decline will ease when the eastward return of 6000 yuan/ton. Therefore, maleic anhydride will not have much room to explore. It should not be as stormy as in May. It is expected that the decline space will be about 1000 yuan/ton
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