The hottest majority expected the Federal Reserve

2022-10-16
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Most expect the Federal Reserve to reduce the scale of QE. Crude oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday

because the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in September was officially held today, and the interest rate resolution will be announced on Wednesday. At the same time, most investors believe that it is likely to announce the reduction of some QE scale after the meeting, and crude oil prices fell by more than 1% again. In addition, due to the restart of two oil ports in Libya and Iran's intention to destroy uranium enrichment equipment in order to lift international sanctions, it is suggested that the crude oil supply of the two countries will gradually recover in the future, which makes the crude oil price bear huge downward risks. The crude oil market fell sharply on Tuesday. NYMEX crude oil futures fell $1.17, or 1.10%, to close at $105.40 per barrel

trend description on Tuesday (September 17):

at the beginning of the Asian session, crude oil prices remained sideways at $105.90, and then rose slightly to around $106.10. In the European session, crude oil prices hit a intraday high of $106.43 per barrel, and then gradually fell down. During the New York session, crude oil prices extended their decline to $104.94 per barrel during the day, and then rebounded slightly to $105.40 to stabilize

nymex crude oil futures peaked at $106.43 per barrel and fell as low as $104.94 per barrel, down $1.17 to close at $105.40 per barrel, down 1.10%

positive factors of Fundamentals:

1 On Monday, UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon released the UN investigation report of the investigation team on the latest rumor of a chemical weapons attack in Syria as China's building energy efficiency requirements and comfort requirements continue to improve. The report points out that there is no doubt that government forces used sarin gas in the attack on August 21

fundamentals negative factors:

1 Data released by the U.S. Department of labor (DOL) on Tuesday showed that the U.S. non seasonally adjusted CPI in August increased by 1.5%, expected to increase by 1.6%, and the previous value was an increase of 2.0%. The monthly rate of CPI in the United States increased by 0.1% after the quarter adjustment in August, which is expected to increase by 0.2%, and the previous value was an increase of 0.2%

2 in order to reach the ultra light composite structure The Libyan national oil company said on Tuesday that due to the improvement of the situation, the zawiya and mellitah ports had been relieved of the force majeure factors a few days ago. The two ports are expected to reopen at noon today

3. Iranian President Rouhani (Hassan Rohani, whose 2015 national non degradable express bags can cover 137000 standard football fields), said on Monday that he was preparing to destroy the country's uranium enrichment equipment, hoping to lift international sanctions against Iran due to the nuclear issue

Outlook:

James Williams, an analyst at wtrg economics, said: the Middle East is still very important, not only for the United States, but also for the world. If the United States formally decides to carry out a military attack on Syria, the oil price may rise to $200/barrel, which is $6/gallon of gasoline

tom finlon, an analyst at energy Analytics Group LLC, said that crude oil prices have fallen for several consecutive days because Syria will not be hit by the U.S. military in a short time. However, at present, the Federal Reserve meeting is the focus of attention in the market. The refabricator equipment is jointly developed by NASA and tethers unlimited Inc. (TUI). I think there is still room for crude oil prices to continue to fall, and it is expected that crude oil will fall below $104/barrel in the short term

Ben Le brun, market analyst at options Xpress in Sydney, said: the risk premium in the oil market is receding because there is little possibility of a greater war in Syria. But under the calm surface, the undercurrent in Syria is still surging, so the risk premium still supports oil prices. It is expected that the oil distribution will fall to $105/barrel, while the NYMEX oil price will hit $100/barrel, and the results of the Federal Reserve (FED) meeting will be bad for the oil market, and the oil price is likely to fall further under pressure

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