In the medium term, the rebound of polypropylene i

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In the medium term, the rebound of polypropylene is expected to continue

recently, the author conducted a series of research interviews on the domestic polypropylene industry chain. What we learned is that the previous wave of replenishment experienced by the market was mainly the participation of traders. For the future, the market generally believes that there may be a correction in the short term, but the petrochemical overhaul in April may drive the rebound in the second quarter

from the perspective of inventory, most of the inventory of multifunctional testing machines of Jinan testing machine factory is mainly concentrated in traders. A large trader in East China said that at present, the market inventory is more concentrated in the hands of traders. If it cannot be digested normally, it will bring some pressure on the recent price. The terminal manufacturers have not yet resumed work, and a large number of construction will not start until after the Lantern Festival. If the terminal manufacturer conflicts with the current market price, traders need to consider how to ship as soon as possible. The tight supply of goods in the recent market performance is more because everyone is reluctant to sell. If the terminal starts not as expected, traders will need to rush to ship, and then the supply will increase again. We found in the interview that the current inventory of traders is generally higher than the normal level, mainly based on the previous low price. A large number of traders believe that the price has bottomed out, so they rush into the market to grab supply. The survey object said: at present, traders' inventory is higher than before, and manufacturers' inventory is also higher than before. In the past, it was possible to maintain the inventory level for days, but the current inventory may have exceeded 10 days

from the current situation, traders' inventory digestion has become the key. However, the sharp rebound in spot goods in the past month has led to some resistance from terminal manufacturers, which will obviously reduce the willingness to purchase. More disadvantageous is that the spot price of polypropylene has begun to weaken in the past two days, and the psychology of buying up rather than buying down has strengthened the motivation of terminal manufacturers to wait and see temporarily and slow down the pace of procurement. According to the information learned by some processing manufacturers in South China, the current spot price has limited attraction to terminal manufacturers. Therefore, traders in the polypropylene market can only gradually reduce prices and transfer their inventories to terminal manufacturers, so that the market can gradually stabilize

in the medium term, the rise of polypropylene price is still optimistic. The main reason is that PetroChina and Sinopec will carry out large-scale maintenance after April. In recent years, the overhaul efforts of the two petrochemical companies are rare. This led to a substantial reduction in polypropylene supply in the second quarter. In the market replenishment that began in February, many traders and terminal manufacturers failed to replenish sufficient supply, and the market price soared all the way. For these traders and manufacturers, in the face of the rise in the month, they all regretted not being able to supplement the supply, and the merchants who grabbed the goods secretly rejoiced. Facing the supply contraction in the second quarter, I believe that most businesses will no longer dare to adopt the low inventory strategy, but must prepare sufficient supplies for the upcoming overhaul in the second quarter. From the perspective of terminal manufacturers, the current raw materials, as a traditional API manufacturer, are still attractive. If a certain inventory cannot be prepared in April, it may face the risk of shortage of raw materials and rising costs

generally speaking, in the short term, due to the accumulation of traders' inventory and the inactive purchase of terminal manufacturers, the polypropylene price will have a short correction. However, in the medium term, based on the petrochemical overhaul in the second quarter and the current price of terminal manufacturers, 1. The crystalline material has a certain profit, and the polypropylene price rise in the second quarter will be a high probability event

note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content. What is wound on the reel of the mechanical arm is carbon fiber thread

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